As March Madness approaches and teams increasingly game-plan to contain Carolina’s high-powered transition game, there will be even more emphasis on half-court execution and efficiency. So how has this edition of the Tar Heels stacked up in the half-court when compared to other recent Roy Williams teams? Let’s look to Table 1 for the answers.

Table 1: UNC's Offensive Efficiency by Shot Clock Segment
Seconds Used	%Poss.	Off. Eff.	%Pts.	Early Offense Premium
2012
1-10	67.8	119.8	71.5	119.2
11-35	32.2	100.5	28.5
2011
1-10	57.4	112.6	60.9	115.5
11-35	42.6	97.5	39.1
2010
1-10	61.5	107.0	64.2	112.4
11-35	38.5	95.2	35.8
2009
1-10	62.5	121.9	64.6	109.4
11-35	37.5	111.4	35.4
2008
1-10	62.5	119.6	64.6	109.3
11-35	37.5	109.4	35.4

The table breaks down UNC’s offensive efficiency by shot clock segment: grouping possessions into those used in the first ten seconds of the clock (early offense—this bin includes second-chance/put-back opportunities) and those used in seconds 11-35 of the clock (half-court offense). %Poss. refers to the percentage of the Heels’ total possessions that fall into each segment; %Pts. is the percentage of total points scored in either the early offense or the half-court. The final column of the table has a metric entitled "Early Offense Premium.” This is an index that measures how much more efficient a given UNC team is in the early offense as compared to in the half-court offense (where 100 means that a team is equally efficient in seconds 1-10 as it is in seconds 11-35, and 110 implies that it is 10% more efficient in seconds 1-10 of the shot clock).

As seen in the table, data is provided for the last five Roy Williams teams at UNC (from the 2007-08 season through the first 22 games of the 2011-12 season). So how do the numbers look for the 2012 group? In the early offense, this edition of the Heels has stacked up well against anyone—even the 2009 champs led by lightning-quick Ty Lawson. No team has used as many as its possessions in seconds 1-10 as the 2012 Heels (67.8%-- 2008 is next with 62.5%) and, correspondingly, no team has scored as many of its points in the early offense (71.5%; 2008 is next with 64.6%). While this percentage figures to drop slightly (against better/more athletic defenses, UNC is forced to play in the half-court more often; the numbers are still slightly skewed by the soft underbelly of the non-conference schedule), it will still probably rank as Roy’s most prolific transition team since I’ve been charting possession length (in terms of percentage of possessions used in early offense). Carolina also has been quite efficient in the early offense in 2012. Its offensive efficiency in seconds 1-10 of 119.8 compares favorably to the Lawson-led teams of 2008 (119.6) and 2009 (121.9), and is a big step up the numbers over the past two campaigns (107.0 in 2010 and 112.6 last year). Any way you slice it, the 2012 Heels have been fantastic in early clock possessions.

Where they have struggled some is in possessions ending in seconds 11-35 of the shot clock. In such possessions, the 2012 Heels have accumulated an offensive efficiency of 100.5. While this is an improvement over the past two seasons (95.2 in 2010, 97.5 in 2011), it pales in comparison to the half-court efficiency displayed by the Lawson/Ellington/Green/Hansbrough teams of 2008 (109.4) and 2009 (111.4). UNC’s Early Offense Premium has also continued to rise season after season—the current figure of 119.2 is easily the highest of the past five seasons (and more than double that of the 2008 and 2009 Final Four teams). This is troubling if teams are able to control the transition game and force the Heels into a half-court battle.

The good news is that these are not final numbers for 2012. The current team is still evolving and maturing. The Heels’ preferred half-court offense—the free-lance passing game—is predicated on experience and shared court time. While there are some principles and concepts that are fundamental to the free-lance offense (look to the post early and often!), the passing game does not rely on structured cuts or movements. As this group becomes more and more comfortable and experienced together, they should also become more and more efficient in the half-court offense. If so, the sky is the limit for the 2012 Heels. If not, this version of Carolina basketball seems especially susceptible this March against teams that can control the Heels’ running game and force a grind-it-out half-court affair.